We are nearly two full months into the summer and we get a little shake up in the Top 10. But it’s not to the extent we expected as Elio just dropped the lowest opening weekend in Pixar’s history to barely grab that #10 spot with $20M. The previous low for Pixar was 2023’s Elemental which turned a dismal $30M start into $151M. Even if Elio hits a similar 5x multiplier by summer’s end it’s still not likely to make the cut. And this is all in spite of having the best CinemaScore (‘A’) and the fourth-best RT Critics score (85%) among the summer’s ‘major’ selections. I’ve seen a lot of rationalization as to why Elio bombed, including animation that is “bland and commercial”, being a “non-unique concept” and a story that is “nothing groundbreaking or interesting”. Perhaps all are true, but I’d put the blame on a release date less than 30 days from Lilo & Stitch ($146M opening over first three days) and only 7 days from HTTYD ($84M opening). Clearly, the Pixar name alone no longer cuts it.
28 Years Later fared better with a franchise-best opening of $30M, but that 69% RT Audience Score and ‘B’ CinemaScore certainly won’t help with long-term numbers. This is very well shaping up to be a dud weekend as the newcomers are already at the bottom of the list.
Top 10 IN
- #8 28 Years Later
- #9 Materialists
- #10 Elio
Top 10 OUT
- Bring Her Back
- Friendship
- The Last Rodeo
Next Weekend: Tracking is already strong for F1 The Movie (selected by 17 players), as an early 87% RT Critics Score is certainly building excitement for what could be a $59-75M opening. On the other hand, M3GAN 2.0 (5 players) hasn’t yet posted reviews, and it only tracking for a $21-31M opening. There might be a lesson to learn here.